A.J. Brown Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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A.J. Brown

NFL · Player Props

A.J. Brown

WR · Philadelphia Eagles

Receiving TD

Philadelphia Eagles vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 7:25 PM UTC

Analysis

A.J. Brown Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+146/-202).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -167 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -202.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 135.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
A.J. Brown has accrued a whopping 100.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 96th percentile among wide receivers.
A.J. Brown's 71.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in football: 98th percentile for WRs.
The Philadelphia Eagles offensive line ranks as the 3rd-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all air attack metrics across the board.
A.J. Brown's ball-catching skills have been refined this season, with his Completion% jumping from 61.6% to 70.1%.

Favors Under

The Eagles are a 6.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
The weatherman calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
Opposing QBs have averaged 32.3 pass attempts per game against the Jacksonville Jaguars defense since the start of last season: 8th-least in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects A.J. Brown to be much less involved in his offense's pass attack near the end zone this week (28.2% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (38.5% in games he has played).
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-best in the NFL since the start of last season.

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