A.J. Brown Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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A.J. Brown

NFL · Player Props

A.J. Brown

WR · Philadelphia Eagles

Receiving TD

Philadelphia Eagles vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 20, 2022 3:00 AM UTC

Analysis

A.J. Brown Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+121/-163).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +129 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +121.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have averaged 36.6 pass attempts per game versus the Minnesota Vikings defense since the start of last season: 6th-most in the league.
THE BLITZ projects A.J. Brown to be a more important option in his offense's passing offense near the end zone this week (26.8% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (20.3% in games he has played).
A.J. Brown has accumulated a monstrous 96.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 94th percentile among wide receivers.
A.J. Brown's 72.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in the league: 99th percentile for wide receivers.

Favors Under

The Eagles are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 126.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

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