A.J. Brown Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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A.J. Brown

NFL · Player Props

A.J. Brown

WR · Philadelphia Eagles

Receiving TD

Chicago Bears vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:26 AM EST

Analysis

A.J. Brown Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+130/-160).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the 7th-fastest paced defense in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment, with opposing offenses averaging 27.58 seconds per play.
A.J. Brown has been a big part of his team's passing offense near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 31.8% this year, which ranks in the 99th percentile among wideouts.
A.J. Brown's 67.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in football: 92nd percentile for wide receivers.
The Philadelphia Eagles O-line ranks as the best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all passing game stats across the board.
A.J. Brown's possession skills have been refined this season, with his Completion% increasing from 61.1% to 68.1%.

Favors Under

The Eagles are a massive 8.5-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
The weather forecast calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
Opposing QBs have averaged 28.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Chicago Bears defense this year: least in football.
A.J. Brown has put up quite a few less air yards this year (88.0 per game) than he did last year (103.0 per game).

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