A.J. Brown Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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A.J. Brown

NFL · Player Props

A.J. Brown

WR · Philadelphia Eagles

Receiving TD

New York Giants vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 5:36 PM UTC

Analysis

A.J. Brown Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+140/-170).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 136.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
A.J. Brown has been a big part of his team's passing offense near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 31.0% this year, which places him in the 99th percentile among wideouts.
A.J. Brown's 69.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in the NFL: 94th percentile for wide receivers.
The Philadelphia Eagles O-line profiles as the best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all pass game stats across the board.
A.J. Brown's possession skills have gotten a boost this season, with his Completion% jumping from 61.1% to 68.1%.

Favors Under

The Eagles are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a rushing game script.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.2 pass attempts per game against the New York Giants defense this year: 5th-least in football.
A.J. Brown has totaled quite a few less air yards this year (89.0 per game) than he did last year (103.0 per game).
The New York Giants pass defense has surrendered the 6th-lowest Completion% in the league (63.1%) versus wideouts this year (63.1%).
The New York Giants defense has surrendered the 5th-least passing touchdowns in football to wide receivers: 0.67 per game this year.

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