A.J. Brown Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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A.J. Brown

NFL · Player Props

A.J. Brown

WR · Philadelphia Eagles

Receiving TD

Philadelphia Eagles vs Tennessee Titans · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM EST

Analysis

A.J. Brown Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+112/-152).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +148 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +112.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 131.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 43.2 pass attempts per game versus the Tennessee Titans defense this year: most in football.
A.J. Brown has been an integral part of his team's passing attack near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 32.5% this year, which ranks in the 99th percentile among wideouts.
A.J. Brown's 70.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in the NFL: 93rd percentile for wide receivers.
The Philadelphia Eagles O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all air attack stats across the board.

Favors Under

The Eagles are a 4.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
A.J. Brown has posted far fewer air yards this season (84.0 per game) than he did last season (103.0 per game).
The Tennessee Titans safeties project as the 2nd-best safety corps in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box versus opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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