A.J. Brown Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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A.J. Brown

NFL · Player Props

A.J. Brown

WR · Philadelphia Eagles

Receiving TD

Philadelphia Eagles vs Green Bay Packers · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 1:21 AM EST

Analysis

A.J. Brown Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+120/-164).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +139 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Eagles to run the 7th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 66.6 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
A.J. Brown has been a key part of his team's pass game near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 35.3% this year, which ranks him in the 99th percentile among wide receivers.
A.J. Brown's 72.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in football: 98th percentile for WRs.
The Philadelphia Eagles offensive line grades out as the 4th-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all air attack stats across the board.
A.J. Brown's receiving reliability have gotten better this year, with his Completion% increasing from 61.6% to 65.3%.

Favors Under

The Eagles are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
The weather forecast calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have averaged 28.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 2nd-least in the league.
A.J. Brown has accumulated far fewer air yards this season (88.0 per game) than he did last season (97.0 per game).
The Green Bay Packers have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 8.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in the league. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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