Aidan O'Connell TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Aidan O'Connell

NFL · Player Props

Aidan O'Connell

QB · Las Vegas Raiders

TD Passes

Las Vegas Raiders vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 11, 2023 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Aidan O'Connell TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+172/-225).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -174 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -225.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Raiders are underdogs in this game, implying more of an emphasis on passing than their typical approach.
The air attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.
The Minnesota Vikings defense has been something of pass funnel this year, allowing opposing offenses to attempt the 9th-most passes in football (37.8 per game) this year.
The Las Vegas Raiders offensive line grades out as the 2nd-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong influence on all air attack stats across the board.
Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 5th-highest clip in football versus the Vikings defense this year (74.6% Adjusted Completion%).

Favors Under

The model projects the Raiders to be the 3rd-least pass-centric team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 55.9% pass rate.
Based on their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Raiders are forecasted by the model to run only 63.1 total plays in this game: the 4th-fewest on the slate this week.
The 3rd-fewest plays in the NFL have been run by the Las Vegas Raiders this year (a measly 53.9 per game on average).
As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, Minnesota's unit has been one of the most skilled this year, ranking as the 3rd-best in the league.

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