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Aidan O'Connell

Aidan O'Connell TD Passes
Player Prop Week 12

Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs

Aidan O'Connell TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-245/+186).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -250 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -245.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Raiders are a giant 9.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.

The Raiders O-line ranks as the best in football this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all passing game stats across the board.

As it relates to safeties rushing the passer, Kansas City's safety corps has been terrible this year, profiling as the worst in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

At the present time, the 2nd-least pass-heavy offense in football (55.7% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Las Vegas Raiders.

Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Raiders are forecasted by the predictive model to run just 63.4 plays on offense in this game: the 6th-fewest among all teams this week.

The Raiders have run the 4th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling just 53.7 plays per game.

Opposing teams teams have been wary to pass too much against the Chiefs, totaling the 4th-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 31.0 per game) this year.

Opposing teams have completed passes at the 6th-lowest rate in football vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year (66.4% Adjusted Completion%).

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