Aidan O'Connell TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Aidan O'Connell

NFL · Player Props

Aidan O'Connell

QB · Las Vegas Raiders

TD Passes

Miami Dolphins vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Aidan O'Connell TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-245/+186).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -225 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -245.

Key Factors

Favors Over

An extreme passing game script is indicated by the Raiders being an enormous -14-point underdog in this week's contest.
The Raiders O-line ranks as the best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive impact on all pass game metrics across the board.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 3rd-highest level in the NFL versus the Dolphins defense this year (75.0% Adjusted Completion%).
This year, the anemic Miami Dolphins defense has been torched for a colossal 1.56 passing touchdowns per game to opposing teams: the 7th-worst rate in football.

Favors Under

At the moment, the 2nd-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL (55.1% context-neutralized) according to our trusted projection set is the Las Vegas Raiders.
Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Las Vegas Raiders are forecasted by the predictive model to run only 62.8 total plays in this contest: the 5th-lowest number on the slate this week.
The Raiders have called the 3rd-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a measly 53.6 plays per game.
As it relates to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Miami's unit has been terrific this year, grading out as the 2nd-best in football.

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