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Aidan O'Connell

Aidan O'Connell TD Passes
Player Prop Week 11

Miami Dolphins vs Las Vegas Raiders

 
 
 
Aidan O'Connell TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-245/+186).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -225 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -245.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • An extreme passing game script is indicated by the Raiders being an enormous -14-point underdog in this week's contest.
  • The Raiders O-line ranks as the best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive impact on all pass game metrics across the board.
  • Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 3rd-highest level in the NFL versus the Dolphins defense this year (75.0% Adjusted Completion%).
  • This year, the anemic Miami Dolphins defense has been torched for a colossal 1.56 passing touchdowns per game to opposing teams: the 7th-worst rate in football.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • At the moment, the 2nd-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL (55.1% context-neutralized) according to our trusted projection set is the Las Vegas Raiders.
  • Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Las Vegas Raiders are forecasted by the predictive model to run only 62.8 total plays in this contest: the 5th-lowest number on the slate this week.
  • The Raiders have called the 3rd-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a measly 53.6 plays per game.
  • As it relates to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Miami's unit has been terrific this year, grading out as the 2nd-best in football.

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