Aidan O'Connell Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Aidan O'Connell

NFL · Player Props

Aidan O'Connell

QB · Las Vegas Raiders

Passing Yards

Las Vegas Raiders vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 11, 2023 12:17 AM UTC

Analysis

Aidan O'Connell Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 213.5 (-103/-133).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 227.5 @ -117 before it was bet down to 213.5 @ -133.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Raiders are underdogs in this game, implying more of an emphasis on passing than their typical approach.
The air attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.
The Minnesota Vikings defense has been something of pass funnel this year, allowing opposing offenses to attempt the 9th-most passes in football (37.8 per game) this year.
The Las Vegas Raiders offensive line grades out as the 2nd-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong influence on all air attack stats across the board.
Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 5th-highest clip in football versus the Vikings defense this year (74.6% Adjusted Completion%).

Favors Under

The model projects the Raiders to be the 3rd-least pass-centric team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 55.9% pass rate.
Based on their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Raiders are forecasted by the model to run only 63.1 total plays in this game: the 4th-fewest on the slate this week.
The 3rd-fewest plays in the NFL have been run by the Las Vegas Raiders this year (a measly 53.9 per game on average).
The Vikings pass defense has exhibited good efficiency this year, surrendering 7.24 adjusted yards-per-target: the 10th-fewest in football.
As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, Minnesota's unit has been one of the most skilled this year, ranking as the 3rd-best in the league.

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