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Adam Trautman

Adam Trautman Receptions
Player Prop Week 19

Buffalo Bills vs Denver Broncos

Adam Trautman Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-205/+165).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ +165 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +165.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Broncos are a big 7.5-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.

The predictive model expects the Broncos as the 3rd-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 59.7% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

The leading projections forecast this game to have the fewest plays run on the slate this week at 132.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Buffalo Bills defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, tempting opposing QBs to attempt the 8th-most passes in football (33.9 per game) this year.

In regards to pass protection (and the positive effect it has on all passing offense stats), the O-line of the Denver Broncos ranks as the best in football this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Adam Trautman's 7.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit worse this season than it was last season at 17.2.

Adam Trautman grades out as one of the worst pass-game TEs this year, averaging a lowly 1.0 adjusted catches per game while ranking in the 12th percentile when it comes to TEs.

Adam Trautman comes in as one of the most hard-handed receivers in the league among tight ends, catching a measly 63.6% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 23rd percentile.

The Bills pass defense has conceded the 8th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (73.2%) versus tight ends this year (73.2%).

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