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Adam Trautman

Adam Trautman Receptions
Player Prop Week 14

Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos

Adam Trautman Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+160/-215).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -210 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -215.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Broncos are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.1 pass attempts per game versus the Chargers defense this year: 4th-most in football.

Adam Trautman's 68.5% Route Participation% this year conveys a noteworthy growth in his passing game utilization over last year's 28.5% mark.

The Denver offensive line profiles as the 6th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all air attack stats across the board.

The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has conceded the 6th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (78.8%) vs. tight ends this year (78.8%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Denver Broncos have a new play-caller this season in head coach Sean Payton, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 2.0% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).

The model projects the Broncos to be the 6th-least pass-heavy offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 58.4% pass rate.

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Denver Broncos are forecasted by the predictive model to call only 63.1 total plays in this game: the 4th-lowest number on the slate this week.

The fewest plays in the NFL have been called by the Broncos this year (only 53.2 per game on average).

Adam Trautman's 72.9% Adjusted Completion Rate this year reflects a material regression in his receiving ability over last year's 80.6% mark.

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