Adam Trautman Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Adam Trautman

NFL · Player Props

Adam Trautman

TE · Denver Broncos

Receptions

Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 11, 2023 2:51 AM UTC

Analysis

Adam Trautman Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+160/-215).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -210 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -215.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Broncos are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.1 pass attempts per game versus the Chargers defense this year: 4th-most in football.
Adam Trautman's 68.5% Route Participation% this year conveys a noteworthy growth in his passing game utilization over last year's 28.5% mark.
The Denver offensive line profiles as the 6th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all air attack stats across the board.
The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has conceded the 6th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (78.8%) vs. tight ends this year (78.8%).

Favors Under

The Denver Broncos have a new play-caller this season in head coach Sean Payton, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 2.0% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The model projects the Broncos to be the 6th-least pass-heavy offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 58.4% pass rate.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Denver Broncos are forecasted by the predictive model to call only 63.1 total plays in this game: the 4th-lowest number on the slate this week.
The fewest plays in the NFL have been called by the Broncos this year (only 53.2 per game on average).
Adam Trautman's 72.9% Adjusted Completion Rate this year reflects a material regression in his receiving ability over last year's 80.6% mark.

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