Adam Trautman Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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NFL · Player Props

Adam Trautman

TE · New Orleans Saints

Receptions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 6, 2022 1:21 AM EST

Analysis

Adam Trautman Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+130/-160).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -135 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -160.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Saints are a huge 8.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Saints to call the 3rd-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Adam Trautman to earn 3.7 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 75th percentile among tight ends.
THE BLITZ projects Adam Trautman to be a much bigger part of his offense's pass game this week (11.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (5.4% in games he has played).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 56.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints have called the least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 55.3 plays per game.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties rank as the best collection of safeties in football this year with their pass rush.
The New Orleans Saints have gone no-huddle on just 2.3% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in football). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.
The New Orleans Saints have risked going for it on 4th down a lowly 14.3% of the time since the start of last season (least in football), which generally means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.