Adam Trautman Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Adam Trautman

NFL · Player Props

Adam Trautman

TE · Denver Broncos

Receiving Yards

Denver Broncos vs Washington Commanders · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 17, 2023 8:11 PM UTC

Analysis

Adam Trautman Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 24.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 23.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 24.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects Adam Trautman to be a much bigger part of his team's passing offense this week (14.5% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (6.2% in games he has played).
Adam Trautman's possession skills have gotten better this year, with his Completion% jumping from 80.7% to 100.0%.
Adam Trautman has been among the most efficient pass-catchers in the league among tight ends, averaging a stellar 9.39 yards-per-target this year while ranking in the 79th percentile.

Favors Under

The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Sean Payton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.4% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The Broncos are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos as the 9th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 54.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos offense to be the 2nd-most sluggish paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 30.43 seconds per play.
Opposing QBs have averaged 29.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Washington Commanders defense since the start of last season: 3rd-least in football.

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