Adam Trautman Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Adam Trautman

TE · New Orleans Saints

Receiving Yards

Carolina Panthers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 4:30 PM EST

Analysis

Adam Trautman Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+110/-143).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -122 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -143.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Saints to run the 2nd-most total plays on the slate this week with 64.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints O-line has allowed their quarterback 2.74 seconds before the pass (3rd-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a strong impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
The New Orleans Saints have faced a stacked the box on 23.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Carolina Panthers have stacked the box vs. opponents on 26.1% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the league. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The New Orleans Saints have called the 8th-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 61.3 plays per game.
The New Orleans Saints have played in the 6th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which should lead to reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced pass game performance when facing windier conditions in this week's game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.5 pass attempts per game against the Carolina Panthers defense since the start of last season: 2nd-least in the league.
THE BLITZ projects Adam Trautman to be much less involved in his team's passing attack this week (2.5% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (10.5% in games he has played).
Adam Trautman has been responsible for a mere 0.0% of his offense's air yards this year: just 4th percentile among TEs.