Adam Trautman Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Adam Trautman

NFL · Player Props

Adam Trautman

TE · New Orleans Saints

Receiving Yards

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 14, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Adam Trautman Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (+107/-139).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -111 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ -139.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New Orleans Saints will be starting backup QB Andy Dalton in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
Opposing QBs have averaged 38.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 6th-most in football.
Adam Trautman's receiving reliability have gotten better this season, with his Completion% increasing from 64.1% to 88.6%.
Adam Trautman's receiving effectiveness has gotten a boost this year, averaging 9.95 yards-per-target compared to a mere 6.57 mark last year.
The Pittsburgh Steelers pass defense has been particularly weak when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, allowing an average of 6.91 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 6th-most in football.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints to be the 6th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 51.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Adam Trautman has been much less involved in his offense's pass game this season (5.0% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (11.7%).
Adam Trautman has posted far fewer air yards this year (10.0 per game) than he did last year (20.0 per game).
The Pittsburgh Steelers linebackers project as the 8th-best LB corps in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

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