Adam Trautman Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Adam Trautman

NFL · Player Props

Adam Trautman

TE · New Orleans Saints

Receiving TD

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 9:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Adam Trautman Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+440/-1010).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -988 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -1010.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Saints are a huge 8.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Saints to call the 3rd-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.3 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Adam Trautman to be a much bigger part of his offense's pass attack near the end zone this week (11.9% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (4.5% in games he has played).
Adam Trautman's sure-handedness have improved this year, with his Completion% increasing from 64.1% to 86.7%.

Favors Under

The New Orleans Saints have called the least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 55.3 plays per game.
Adam Trautman has notched quite a few less air yards this season (10.0 per game) than he did last season (20.0 per game).
Adam Trautman's 10.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit worse this season than it was last season at 23.4.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties rank as the best collection of safeties in football this year with their pass rush.
The New Orleans Saints have gone no-huddle on just 2.3% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in football). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.

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