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Adam Thielen

Adam Thielen Receptions
Player Prop Week 3

Las Vegas Raiders vs Carolina Panthers

Adam Thielen Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-175/+135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -160 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -175.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At a -4-point disadvantage, the Panthers are underdogs in this week's contest, indicating more of an emphasis on passing than their usual approach.

The 9th-largest volume of plays in football have been run by the Carolina Panthers since the start of last season (a staggering 59.8 per game on average).

The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may fall-off.

Adam Thielen checks in as one of the top wide receivers in the league since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 5.6 adjusted catches per game while checking in at the 94th percentile.

Adam Thielen profiles as one of the most reliable receivers in the league, catching a stellar 76.0% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, checking in at the 99th percentile among wide receivers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Right now, the 4th-least pass-centric team in the NFL (54.9% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Panthers.

The leading projections forecast this game to have the 3rd-fewest plays run among all games this week at 125.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The model projects Adam Thielen to be a less important option in his offense's passing game in this week's game (18.2% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (25.4% in games he has played).

The Panthers O-line profiles as the 3rd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all pass attack stats across the board.

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