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Adam Thielen

Adam Thielen Receptions
Player Prop Week 16

Carolina Panthers vs Arizona Cardinals

Adam Thielen Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+125/-155).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -150 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -155.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At a -5.5-point disadvantage, the Panthers are underdogs this week, implying more of an emphasis on throwing than their standard approach.

The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm weather conditions (4-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while run volume may fall-off.

The leading projections forecast Adam Thielen to garner 8.1 targets in this contest, on balance, putting him in the 85th percentile among wide receivers.

Adam Thielen grades out as one of the most reliable receivers in the NFL, completing a fantastic 78.4% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, grading out in the 94th percentile among WRs.

This year, the porous Arizona Cardinals pass defense has yielded a whopping 69.2% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing wide receivers: the 5th-highest rate in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Our trusted projections expect the Panthers to be the 9th-least pass-heavy offense in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 58.9% pass rate.

Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Carolina Panthers are forecasted by our trusted projection set to run only 63.8 offensive plays in this contest: the 7th-fewest among all teams this week.

The Carolina Panthers have run the 3rd-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling just 54.4 plays per game.

Adam Thielen's 20.1% Target% this year indicates a meaningful decrease in his passing game utilization over last year's 26.7% rate.

Adam Thielen's pass-catching performance diminished this year, compiling a mere 4.8 adjusted receptions compared to 6.1 last year.

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