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Adam Thielen

Adam Thielen Receptions
Player Prop Week 13

Carolina Panthers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Adam Thielen Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ +100 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

A passing game script is implied by the Panthers being a -6.5-point underdog in this week's contest.

The Buccaneers defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, causing opposing teams to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the league (38.7 per game) this year.

Our trusted projections expect Adam Thielen to be much less involved in his team's passing offense in this game (6.6% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (12.8% in games he has played).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Right now, the 6th-least pass-focused offense in the league (57.0% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Panthers.

The leading projections forecast the Panthers to call the 10th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 63.9 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.

The Panthers have called the 2nd-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a lowly 53.4 plays per game.

Adam Thielen's receiving talent has worsened this year, accumulating just 2.8 adjusted receptions compared to 6.1 last year.

The Buccaneers cornerbacks grade out as the 2nd-best collection of CBs in football this year in covering receivers.

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