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Adam Thielen

Adam Thielen Receptions
Player Prop Week 12

Carolina Panthers vs Kansas City Chiefs

Adam Thielen Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+120/-150).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -180 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

An extreme passing game script is implied by the Panthers being a massive -11-point underdog this week.

The predictive model expects Adam Thielen to be much more involved in his offense's pass game in this week's game (20.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (12.8% in games he has played).

Adam Thielen rates as one of the best WRs in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a fantastic 5.6 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 93rd percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

At the present time, the 3rd-least pass-centric team in the NFL (55.9% in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Panthers.

Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Carolina Panthers are predicted by the projections to run just 63.4 offensive plays in this game: the 7th-lowest number among all teams this week.

The lowest number of plays in football have been called by the Panthers this year (just 53.1 per game on average).

Adam Thielen's 71.9% Adjusted Completion Rate this season marks an impressive decline in his receiving proficiency over last season's 76.0% mark.

When it comes to defensive tackles pass-rushing, Kansas City's unit has been exceptional this year, grading out as the 3rd-best in football.

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