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Adam Thielen

Adam Thielen Receptions
Player Prop Week 1

New Orleans Saints vs Carolina Panthers

Adam Thielen Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-155/+120).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At a -5-point disadvantage, the Panthers are underdogs this week, indicating more of a focus on throwing than their normal approach.

The projections expect this game to see the 5th-most plays run on the slate this week at 131.3 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics.

The Panthers have run the 2nd-most plays in the league last year, totaling a colossal 61.2 plays per game.

The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop-off.

Adam Thielen comes in as one of the top wide receivers in the NFL last year, averaging an excellent 6.1 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 93rd percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Our trusted projections expect the Carolina Panthers to be the 2nd-least pass-focused team in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 56.7% pass rate.

The leading projections forecast Adam Thielen to be a much smaller piece of his team's pass game this week (19.0% projected Target Share) than he has been last year (26.3% in games he has played).

The Carolina O-line ranks as the 3rd-worst in the NFL last year in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.

The New Orleans Saints pass defense has allowed the 3rd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (59%) vs. WRs last year (59.0%).

As it relates to safeties in defending pass-catchers, New Orleans's safety corps has been terrific last year, ranking as the 4th-best in the NFL.

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