Adam Thielen Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Adam Thielen

NFL · Player Props

Adam Thielen

WR · Carolina Panthers

Receptions

Carolina Panthers vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 9:41 PM EST

Analysis

Adam Thielen Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-149/+115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -111 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -149.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Panthers boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, and The leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to tilt 5.9% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The Panthers are a 4.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.
The model projects this game to have the 3rd-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 36.1 pass attempts per game versus the Vikings defense since the start of last season: 5th-most in football.
The leading projections forecast Adam Thielen to total 7.9 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 84th percentile when it comes to WRs.

Favors Under

Our trusted projections expect the Panthers as the 9th-least pass-oriented team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 59.1% pass rate.
The Panthers have run the 4th-fewest plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 54.9 plays per game.
When it comes to safeties in pass coverage, Minnesota's group of safeties has been fantastic since the start of last season, profiling as the 2nd-best in football.

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