Adam Thielen Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Adam Thielen

NFL · Player Props

Adam Thielen

WR · Carolina Panthers

Receptions

Seattle Seahawks vs Carolina Panthers · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 8:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Adam Thielen Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+114/-150).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -136 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 6.5% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The Panthers are a 4.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 10th-quickest paced defense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment, leading opposing offenses to average 27.52 seconds per snap.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Adam Thielen has run a route on 90.9% of his offense's passing plays since the start of last season, ranking in the 88th percentile among wide receivers.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 10th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 55.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Seattle Seahawks pass defense has allowed the 8th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (64.6%) versus wide receivers since the start of last season (64.6%).

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