Adam Thielen Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Adam Thielen

NFL · Player Props

Adam Thielen

WR · Carolina Panthers

Receptions

Tennessee Titans vs Carolina Panthers · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 26, 2023 6:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Adam Thielen Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ +105 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Carolina Panthers offensive strategy to tilt 6.6% more towards the passing game than it did last year (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Thomas Brown now calling the plays.
The Panthers are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script.
The 3rd-most plays in football have been run by the Carolina Panthers this year (a monstrous 62.1 per game on average).
In this week's contest, Adam Thielen is projected by the predictive model to position himself in the 92nd percentile among wideouts with 9.0 targets.
Adam Thielen's 28.8% Target Rate this year illustrates a significant boost in his passing offense volume over last year's 16.0% rate.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Panthers to run the 2nd-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.6 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 33.8 pass attempts per game versus the Titans defense this year: 8th-fewest in the league.
When talking about protecting the passer (and the significance it has on all passing game metrics), the O-line of the Carolina Panthers grades out as the 2nd-worst in football this year.

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