Adam Thielen Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Adam Thielen

NFL · Player Props

Adam Thielen

WR · Carolina Panthers

Receptions

Carolina Panthers vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 12:16 AM EST

Analysis

Adam Thielen Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-152/+116).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ -141 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ -152.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Panthers offensive strategy to skew 6.6% more towards the passing attack than it did last year (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Thomas Brown now calling the plays.
This week's spread indicates an extreme passing game script for the Panthers, who are giant -11.5-point underdogs.
Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Carolina Panthers to pass on 61.0% of their plays: the 5th-highest rate among all teams this week.
At the moment, the 7th-quickest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Panthers.
The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (3-mph wind) being called for in this game, while rush volume may go down.

Favors Under

Opposing offenses teams have been wary to rely on the passing game too much against the Dallas Cowboys, averaging the 2nd-fewest attempts in football (a mere 28.6 per game) this year.
The Carolina Panthers offensive line grades out as the 2nd-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all passing game stats across the board.
This year, the imposing Dallas Cowboys defense has given up a paltry 56.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wideouts: the 2nd-smallest rate in the NFL.
The Cowboys linebackers profile as the 4th-best LB corps in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

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