Adam Thielen Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Adam Thielen

NFL · Player Props

Adam Thielen

WR · Minnesota Vikings

Receptions

Washington Commanders vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 7, 2022 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Adam Thielen Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+120/-157).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -148 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -157.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 5.0% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 6th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 62.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Adam Thielen to total 7.9 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 84th percentile among WRs.
Adam Thielen has been among the top pass-catching WRs this year, averaging an impressive 5.0 receptions per game while ranking in the 85th percentile.

Favors Under

The Vikings are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards a rushing game script.
Opposing QBs have averaged 32.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Washington Commanders defense this year: 6th-least in the league.
Adam Thielen has been a much bigger part of his team's offense this year, playing on 93.4% of snaps vs just 77.5% last year.
The Minnesota Vikings O-line ranks as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Adam Thielen's possession skills have tailed off this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 77.8% to 72.7%.

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