Adam Thielen Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Adam Thielen

NFL · Player Props

Adam Thielen

WR · Minnesota Vikings

Receptions

Miami Dolphins vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Adam Thielen Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+125/-166).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -139 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -166.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Minnesota Vikings will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.1% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 8th-most pass-centric offense in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 64.5% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings offense to be the 10th-quickest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 27.62 seconds per snap.
Adam Thielen has run a route on 97.4% of his team's dropbacks this year, placing him in the 96th percentile among WRs.
THE BLITZ projects Adam Thielen to accumulate 6.8 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 76th percentile among wideouts.

Favors Under

The Vikings are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a rushing game script.
The Miami Dolphins pass defense has given up the 6th-lowest Completion% in the league (62.7%) vs. wideouts this year (62.7%).
The Miami Dolphins defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 3rd-best in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Minnesota Vikings have gone no-huddle on a mere 4.5% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (9th-least in football). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.

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