Adam Thielen Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 2

NFL · Player Props

Adam Thielen

WR · Minnesota Vikings

Receptions

Philadelphia Eagles vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 20, 2022 3:00 AM UTC

Analysis

Adam Thielen Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+130/-169).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -140 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -169.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Minnesota Vikings will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.3% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The Vikings are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 2nd-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 64.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Adam Thielen has run a route on 97.4% of his offense's passing plays since the start of last season, ranking in the 100th percentile among WRs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Minnesota Vikings have played in the 4th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to result in reduced pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing offense results when facing windier conditions in this week's contest.
The Minnesota Vikings offensive line profiles as the 2nd-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
The Philadelphia Eagles cornerbacks grade out as the best collection of CBs in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
The Philadelphia Eagles pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.40 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 7th-best in football since the start of last season.