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Adam Thielen

Adam Thielen Receptions
Player Prop Week 1

Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers

Adam Thielen Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+110/-150).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ +120 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ +110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Minnesota Vikings will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.2% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).

THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 7th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 63.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects the Vikings to call the 3rd-most total plays among all teams this week with 64.8 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

Adam Thielen has run a route on 97.2% of his offense's dropbacks since the start of last season, ranking in the 100th percentile among WRs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Minnesota Vikings offensive line grades out as the 3rd-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.

The Green Bay Packers pass defense has surrendered the 2nd-lowest Completion% in the league (58.6%) to wideouts since the start of last season (58.6%).

The Green Bay Packers defensive tackles rank as the 4th-best collection of DTs in football since the start of last season when it comes to rushing the passer.

The Green Bay Packers have stacked the box against opponents on just 8.8% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

The Minnesota Vikings have gone no-huddle on a mere 4.5% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (9th-least in football). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.

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