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Adam Thielen

Adam Thielen Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 13

Carolina Panthers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Adam Thielen Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 41.5 (-110/-110).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

A passing game script is implied by the Panthers being a -6.5-point underdog in this week's contest.

The Buccaneers defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, causing opposing teams to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the league (38.7 per game) this year.

Our trusted projections expect Adam Thielen to be much less involved in his team's passing offense in this game (6.6% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (12.8% in games he has played).

Adam Thielen's 10.1 adjusted yards per target this year shows a significant boost in his receiving skills over last year's 7.9 figure.

Adam Thielen's 5.36 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year represents an impressive gain in his efficiency in space over last year's 3.3% rate.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Right now, the 6th-least pass-focused offense in the league (57.0% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Panthers.

The leading projections forecast the Panthers to call the 10th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 63.9 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.

The Panthers have called the 2nd-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a lowly 53.4 plays per game.

Adam Thielen has notched significantly fewer air yards this year (41.0 per game) than he did last year (67.0 per game).

Adam Thielen's 38.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this season represents a meaningful regression in his receiving ability over last season's 63.0 mark.

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