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Adam Thielen

Adam Thielen Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 12

Carolina Panthers vs Kansas City Chiefs

Adam Thielen Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 27.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 26.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 27.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

An extreme passing game script is implied by the Panthers being a massive -11-point underdog this week.

The predictive model expects Adam Thielen to be much more involved in his offense's pass game in this week's game (20.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (12.8% in games he has played).

Adam Thielen has put up a staggering 63.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 78th percentile when it comes to wideouts.

Adam Thielen is positioned as one of the top WRs in the league since the start of last season, averaging an outstanding 59.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 85th percentile.

Adam Thielen's pass-game effectiveness has been refined this season, accumulating 9.18 adjusted yards-per-target vs just 7.89 figure last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

At the present time, the 3rd-least pass-centric team in the NFL (55.9% in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Panthers.

Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Carolina Panthers are predicted by the projections to run just 63.4 offensive plays in this game: the 7th-lowest number among all teams this week.

The lowest number of plays in football have been called by the Panthers this year (just 53.1 per game on average).

Adam Thielen's 71.9% Adjusted Completion Rate this season marks an impressive decline in his receiving proficiency over last season's 76.0% mark.

The Chiefs defense has yielded the 8th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (just 132.0) versus wideouts this year.

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