Adam Thielen Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Adam Thielen

NFL · Player Props

Adam Thielen

WR · Carolina Panthers

Receiving Yards

Carolina Panthers vs Houston Texans · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 7:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Adam Thielen Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 67.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 65.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 67.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Panthers offense to tilt 5.6% more towards the passing attack than it did last year (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Thomas Brown now calling the plays.
This game's line suggests a throwing game script for the Panthers, who are -3.5-point underdogs.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is anticipated by the projection model to see 132.3 total plays called: the 3rd-most on the slate this week.
The 4th-most plays in the NFL have been called by the Carolina Panthers this year (a colossal 64.0 per game on average).
The Houston Texans defense has been something of pass funnel this year, causing opposing QBs to attempt the 9th-most passes in the league (38.5 per game) this year.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Carolina Panthers to pass on 56.9% of their chances: the 11th-lowest rate on the slate this week.
When talking about pass-blocking (and the impact it has on all passing attack statistics), the O-line of the Carolina Panthers grades out as the 2nd-worst in the NFL this year.
The Houston Texans pass defense has been quite strong when opposing WRs have gotten into space, conceding an average of 3.43 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 5th-fewest in the league.
The Houston cornerbacks project as the 2nd-best collection of CBs in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

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