Adam Thielen Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Adam Thielen

NFL · Player Props

Adam Thielen

WR · Carolina Panthers

Receiving Yards

Seattle Seahawks vs Carolina Panthers · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 8:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Adam Thielen Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 38.5 (-120/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 6.5% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The Panthers are a 4.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 10th-quickest paced defense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment, leading opposing offenses to average 27.52 seconds per snap.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Adam Thielen has run a route on 90.9% of his offense's passing plays since the start of last season, ranking in the 88th percentile among wide receivers.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 10th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 55.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Adam Thielen has been among the weakest wideouts in the NFL at picking up extra yardage, averaging a mere 2.16 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while grading out in the 14th percentile.
The Seattle Seahawks defense has given up the 2nd-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 122.0) to wide receivers since the start of last season.
The Seattle Seahawks pass defense has exhibited good efficiency versus wide receivers since the start of last season, conceding 7.57 yards-per-target to the position: the 5th-least in the league.

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