Adam Thielen Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Adam Thielen

NFL · Player Props

Adam Thielen

WR · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving Yards

Miami Dolphins vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM EST

Analysis

Adam Thielen Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 53.5 (+115/-155).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Minnesota Vikings will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.1% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 8th-most pass-centric offense in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 64.5% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings offense to be the 10th-quickest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 27.62 seconds per snap.
Adam Thielen has run a route on 97.4% of his team's dropbacks this year, placing him in the 96th percentile among WRs.
THE BLITZ projects Adam Thielen to accumulate 6.8 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 76th percentile among wideouts.

Favors Under

The Vikings are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a rushing game script.
Adam Thielen has accumulated far fewer air yards this season (62.0 per game) than he did last season (69.0 per game).
Adam Thielen's talent in grinding out extra yardage have diminished this season, averaging just 1.80 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 3.88 mark last season.
The Miami Dolphins pass defense has given up the 6th-lowest Completion% in the league (62.7%) vs. wideouts this year (62.7%).
The Miami Dolphins defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 3rd-best in the NFL since the start of last season.

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