Adam Thielen Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 19

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Adam Thielen

NFL · Player Props

Adam Thielen

WR · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving Yards

Minnesota Vikings vs New York Giants · Week 19, 2022

Updated Jan 19, 2023 4:28 PM EST

Analysis

Adam Thielen Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 35.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 5.2% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 2nd-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 64.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 134.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Minnesota Vikings have called the 7th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 60.7 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

Favors Under

The Vikings are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Adam Thielen has been a much smaller part of his team's air attack this year (16.0% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (22.1%).
The Minnesota Vikings offensive line grades out as the 5th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all pass game stats across the board.
Adam Thielen has posted a lot fewer receiving yards per game (46.0) this season than he did last season (62.0).
Adam Thielen's ball-catching skills have declined this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 77.8% to 68.1%.

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