Adam Thielen Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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Adam Thielen

NFL · Player Props

Adam Thielen

WR · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving Yards

Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 1, 2023 8:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Adam Thielen Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 42.5 (-130/+100).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Minnesota Vikings will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 6.2% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Vikings are a 3-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 3rd-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 64.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 26.75 seconds per play.
Adam Thielen has accumulated a colossal 69.0 air yards per game this year: 79th percentile among wide receivers.

Favors Under

Opposing QBs have averaged 29.5 pass attempts per game versus the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 2nd-least in football.
Adam Thielen has been a less important option in his offense's air attack this year (16.8% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (22.1%).
The Minnesota Vikings offensive line grades out as the 7th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all passing game stats across the board.
Adam Thielen has totaled significantly fewer receiving yards per game (50.0) this year than he did last year (62.0).
Adam Thielen's sure-handedness have declined this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 77.8% to 69.6%.

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