Adam Thielen Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Adam Thielen

NFL · Player Props

Adam Thielen

WR · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving Yards

Minnesota Vikings vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 18, 2022 12:21 AM EST

Analysis

Adam Thielen Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 52.5 (+115/-140).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 50.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 52.5 @ +115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 5.0% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 4th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 64.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 136.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Adam Thielen has run a route on 94.2% of his team's dropbacks this year, ranking him in the 89th percentile among WRs.

Favors Under

The Vikings are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
Opposing teams have averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game against the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 3rd-least in the league.
The Minnesota Vikings O-line ranks as the 4th-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
Adam Thielen's possession skills have diminished this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 77.8% to 71.3%.
Adam Thielen's receiving effectiveness has diminished this season, accumulating a measly 7.91 yards-per-target vs a 9.35 figure last season.

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