Adam Thielen Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Adam Thielen

NFL · Player Props

Adam Thielen

WR · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving Yards

Minnesota Vikings vs New England Patriots · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 25, 2022 12:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Adam Thielen Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 46.5 (+108/-143).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 43.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 46.5 @ +108.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Minnesota Vikings will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.7% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 4th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 64.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-most plays run on the slate this week at 132.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing QBs have averaged 35.1 pass attempts per game versus the New England Patriots defense this year: 9th-most in football.

Favors Under

Adam Thielen has been a more important option in his team's offense this year, staying on the field for 92.0% of snaps vs just 77.5% last year.
The Minnesota Vikings offensive line ranks as the 5th-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
Adam Thielen's possession skills have worsened this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 77.8% to 69.9%.
Adam Thielen's pass-game efficiency has tailed off this year, averaging a mere 8.20 yards-per-target vs a 9.39 rate last year.
Adam Thielen's skills in grinding out extra yardage have worsened this season, compiling a measly 2.07 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 3.88 rate last season.

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