Adam Thielen Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Adam Thielen

NFL · Player Props

Adam Thielen

WR · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving Yards

Minnesota Vikings vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 21, 2022 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Adam Thielen Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 46.5 (-101/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 46.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 46.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.7% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 2nd-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 67.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the most plays run among all games this week at 140.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Adam Thielen to accumulate 8.1 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking in the 87th percentile among wideouts.

Favors Under

Adam Thielen has been a more important option in his team's offense this year, staying in the game for 93.5% of snaps vs just 77.5% last year.
The Minnesota Vikings offensive line grades out as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all passing game stats across the board.
Adam Thielen's ball-catching skills have worsened this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 77.8% to 70.0%.
Adam Thielen's receiving efficiency has tailed off this year, averaging a mere 8.24 yards-per-target compared to a 9.39 mark last year.
Adam Thielen's skills in picking up extra yardage have declined this year, notching a measly 2.16 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 3.88 figure last year.

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