Adam Thielen Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 6

reorder

NFL · Player Props

Adam Thielen

WR · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving TD

Miami Dolphins vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Adam Thielen Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+198/-275).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings offense to be the 10th-quickest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 27.62 seconds per snap.
Adam Thielen has been heavily involved in his team's pass game near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 20.5% this year, which puts him in the 84th percentile among wideouts.
Adam Thielen has been among the best possession receivers in the league, catching a stellar 77.1% of passes thrown his way this year, grading out in the 87th percentile among wide receivers.
The Miami Dolphins safeties rank as the 2nd-worst collection of safeties in football this year in covering receivers.
The Minnesota Vikings have been faced with a stacked the box on 20.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Vikings are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a rushing game script.
Adam Thielen has accumulated far fewer air yards this season (62.0 per game) than he did last season (69.0 per game).
The Miami Dolphins pass defense has given up the 6th-lowest Completion% in the league (62.7%) vs. wideouts this year (62.7%).
The Miami Dolphins defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 3rd-best in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Minnesota Vikings have gone no-huddle on a mere 4.5% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (9th-least in football). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.