Adam Thielen Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Adam Thielen

NFL · Player Props

Adam Thielen

WR · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving TD

Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Adam Thielen Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+174/-250).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -239 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -250.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in football (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 26.83 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Adam Thielen has been heavily involved in his team's pass game near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 18.8% this year, which ranks him in the 77th percentile among WRs.
Adam Thielen has earned a monstrous 26.8% of his offense's air yards this year: 78th percentile among WRs.
Adam Thielen's 47.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in the NFL: 75th percentile for WRs.

Favors Under

The Vikings are an enormous 7.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
Opposing QBs have averaged 27.2 pass attempts per game versus the Chicago Bears defense this year: least in the NFL.
The Minnesota Vikings offensive line profiles as the 7th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
The Chicago Bears defense has allowed the least passing touchdowns in football to wideouts: 0.25 per game this year.
The Minnesota Vikings have gone no-huddle on a mere 4.5% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (9th-least in football). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.

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