Adam Thielen Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Adam Thielen

NFL · Player Props

Adam Thielen

WR · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving TD

Minnesota Vikings vs New York Jets · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Adam Thielen Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+219/-338).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -296 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -338.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 132.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Adam Thielen has notched a monstrous 73.0 air yards per game this year: 83rd percentile among wideouts.
Adam Thielen's 48.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the league leaders: 78th percentile for wide receivers.
The Minnesota Vikings have gone up against a stacked the box on 20.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Vikings are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
The Minnesota Vikings offensive line profiles as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all passing attack stats across the board.
Adam Thielen's possession skills have diminished this year, with his Completion% falling off from 77.8% to 72.6%.
The New York Jets pass defense has yielded the 4th-lowest Completion% in football (62.4%) to wideouts this year (62.4%).
The New York Jets cornerbacks rank as the best collection of CBs in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

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