Adam Thielen Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Adam Thielen

NFL · Player Props

Adam Thielen

WR · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving TD

Minnesota Vikings vs New England Patriots · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 25, 2022 1:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Adam Thielen Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+235/-372).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -363 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -372.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-most plays run on the slate this week at 132.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing QBs have averaged 35.1 pass attempts per game versus the New England Patriots defense this year: 9th-most in football.
Adam Thielen has compiled a monstrous 73.0 air yards per game this year: 84th percentile among wide receivers.
Adam Thielen's 48.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the league leaders: 78th percentile for wideouts.

Favors Under

The Minnesota Vikings offensive line ranks as the 5th-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
Adam Thielen's possession skills have worsened this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 77.8% to 69.9%.
The New England Patriots pass defense has given up the 5th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (61.9%) to wideouts this year (61.9%).
The New England Patriots defense has surrendered the least touchdowns through the air in football to wide receivers: 0.40 per game this year.
The New England Patriots cornerbacks project as the 6th-best unit in the league this year in covering receivers.

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