Adam Thielen Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Adam Thielen

NFL · Player Props

Adam Thielen

WR · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving TD

Minnesota Vikings vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 20, 2022 9:26 PM EST

Analysis

Adam Thielen Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+221/-342).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +226 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +221.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the most plays run among all games this week at 140.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Adam Thielen has put up quite a few more air yards this year (78.0 per game) than he did last year (69.0 per game).
Adam Thielen's 50.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in the league: 79th percentile for wideouts.
The Dallas Cowboys defense has conceded the 6th-most touchdowns through the air in football to wide receivers: 1.11 per game this year.

Favors Under

The Minnesota Vikings offensive line grades out as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all passing game stats across the board.
Adam Thielen's ball-catching skills have worsened this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 77.8% to 70.0%.
The Dallas Cowboys linebackers project as the 2nd-best LB corps in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
The Dallas Cowboys defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 5th-best in football since the start of last season.
The Minnesota Vikings have gone no-huddle on a lowly 4.5% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (9th-least in football). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.

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