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Adam Thielen

Adam Thielen Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 11

Minnesota Vikings vs Dallas Cowboys

 
 
 
Adam Thielen Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+221/-342).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +226 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +221.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • THE BLITZ projects this game to have the most plays run among all games this week at 140.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
  • Adam Thielen has put up quite a few more air yards this year (78.0 per game) than he did last year (69.0 per game).
  • Adam Thielen's 50.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in the league: 79th percentile for wideouts.
  • The Dallas Cowboys defense has conceded the 6th-most touchdowns through the air in football to wide receivers: 1.11 per game this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Minnesota Vikings offensive line grades out as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all passing game stats across the board.
  • Adam Thielen's ball-catching skills have worsened this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 77.8% to 70.0%.
  • The Dallas Cowboys linebackers project as the 2nd-best LB corps in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
  • The Dallas Cowboys defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 5th-best in football since the start of last season.
  • The Minnesota Vikings have gone no-huddle on a lowly 4.5% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (9th-least in football). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.

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