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Aaron Rodgers

Aaron Rodgers TD Passes
Player Prop Week 17

Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets

Aaron Rodgers TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+135/-175).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +174 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +135.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At a -10-point disadvantage, the Jets are massive underdogs in this game, suggesting much more of a focus on throwing than their normal game plan.

Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Jets to pass on 62.9% of their chances: the 4th-highest rate among all teams this week.

Our trusted projections expect the Jets to be the most pass-centric offense in the NFL near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 66.5% red zone pass rate.

The leading projections forecast Aaron Rodgers to attempt 36.8 passes in this game, on average: the 8th-most out of all quarterbacks.

The Buffalo Bills defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the 8th-most passes in the league (36.0 per game) this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is forecasted by our trusted projection set to have just 127.0 total plays called: the fewest among all games this week.

The Jets have called the 7th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling just 55.9 plays per game.

The weatherman calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.

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