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Aaron Rodgers

Aaron Rodgers TD Passes
Player Prop Week 15

Jacksonville Jaguars vs New York Jets

Aaron Rodgers TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+140/-170).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -140 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -170.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At the moment, the most pass-heavy offense in football in the red zone (65.4% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Jets.

In this contest, Aaron Rodgers is predicted by the model to average the 10th-most pass attempts out of all QBs with 36.2.

Opposing teams have averaged 36.4 pass attempts per game against the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 7th-most in the league.

In regards to pass protection (and the strong effect it has on all pass game stats), the O-line of the New York Jets profiles as the 5th-best in the league this year.

Aaron Rodgers has been among the best TD throwers in the NFL this year, averaging an exceptional 1.54 per game while checking in at the 76th percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 3-point advantage, the Jets are favored in this game, suggesting more of a focus on running than their typical game plan.

The 10th-fewest plays in football have been called by the New York Jets this year (a lowly 56.1 per game on average).

The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.

More Aaron Rodgers Player Props

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