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Aaron Rodgers

Aaron Rodgers TD Passes
Player Prop Week 14

Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets

Aaron Rodgers TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+165/-220).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -210 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -220.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Jets are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script.

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Jets to pass on 63.7% of their chances: the 4th-greatest rate on the slate this week.

At the present time, the most pass-focused team in the NFL near the end zone (65.4% in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the New York Jets.

In this contest, Aaron Rodgers is anticipated by the projection model to wind up with the 7th-most pass attempts out of all QBs with 37.5.

As it relates to pass protection (and the strong impact it has on all pass game metrics), the offensive line of the New York Jets grades out as the 7th-best in the NFL this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The projections expect this game to see the 5th-fewest plays run on the slate this week at 127.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The New York Jets have run the 7th-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a mere 55.7 plays per game.

The Dolphins defense has yielded the 6th-fewest passing touchdowns in football: 1.08 per game this year.

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