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Aaron Rodgers

Aaron Rodgers TD Passes
Player Prop Week 9

Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers

Aaron Rodgers TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-250/+194).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -220 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -250.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers as the 8th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 60.7% red zone pass rate.

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.

Aaron Rodgers has been among the most on-target QBs in the league this year with an impressive 67.9% Completion%, checking in at the 86th percentile.

Aaron Rodgers has been among the best touchdown passers in the league this year, averaging an impressive 1.62 per game while grading out in the 76th percentile.

Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 2nd-highest level in the NFL against the Detroit Lions defense this year (75.9%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Packers are a heavy 10.5-point underdog in this game, indicating an extreme passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Packers to run the 3rd-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Green Bay Packers offensive line has given their QB a measly 2.44 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.

The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in the NFL). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.

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