Aaron Rodgers TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Aaron Rodgers

NFL · Player Props

Aaron Rodgers

QB · Green Bay Packers

TD Passes

Buffalo Bills vs Green Bay Packers · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 31, 2022 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Aaron Rodgers TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+134/-180).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -127 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -180.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Packers are a giant 10.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 2nd-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 67.2% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 8th-most pass-heavy team in the NFL near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 60.6% red zone pass rate.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Aaron Rodgers to attempt 39.5 passes in this week's contest, on average: the 4th-most of all QBs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Packers to run the 9th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills defense has yielded the 3rd-least passing touchdowns in the league: 0.83 per game this year.
The Buffalo Bills linebackers profile as the best unit in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Green Bay Packers offensive line has afforded their QB just 2.44 seconds before the pass (3rd-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-least in the league). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat production.

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